FAN Hui-jing 1, 2, ZHAO Hong-li 1, JIANG Yun-zhong 1 (1. Department of Water Resources, IWHR, Beijing 100038, China, 2. Shenyang Branch Office, Liaoning Investigation Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources, Shenyang 110005, China)

Abstract: In order to forecast the future runoff trends in a basin, the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily rainfall and monthly runoff of A2/B2 climate scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are predicted and analyzed by principal component analysis, downscaling model and SWAT model. Principal component analysis extracts principal components of climate predictors in large-scale climate, and downscaling model predicts the maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall in stations using the principal components, and SWAT model puts the predicted date in stations into the basin model to calculate future runoff. The results show that, in A2/B2 climate scenarios rainfall will show a fluctuating rise, and temperature and runoff will show a fluctuating fall, in which B2 is more unfavorable than A2.

Key words: General Circulation Models (GCMs), A2/B2, principal component analysis, statistical down scaling model, SWAT model

Published in: Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (Vol. 10 No. 3, 2012)