LIU Jin-hua 1, NI Hong-zhen 1, WANG Dang-xian 2, HUANG Xiao-li 3 (1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China, 2. Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, MWR, Beijing 100011, China, 3. China Irrigation and Drainage Development Center, Beijing 100054, China)

Abstract: The CGE model is an important tool for economic policy analysis on water resources. On the basis of ORANIG model, this paper builds the Tianjin CGE model by treating water resources as one of the factors of production. With input-output tables and water resources bulletin of Tianjin at the year of 2007 as the data source, the Tianjin water input-output tables have been established. By selecting the coefficient of elasticity reasonably and combing the situation of national economic development and water resources development and utilization in Tianjin in 2007, different scenarios based on various water supply are simulated using the CGE model, and the economic effect of the water resources in Tianjin is evaluated. The results show that: (1) with the level of technology development and exploitation of water resources in 2007, the marginal contribution to GDP related to water resources is about 8.65RMB/m 3, the marginal contribution decreases with water supply increasing, (2) the marginal contribution to total output that relates to water re source is about 31RMB/m 3, of which agriculture is 0.8RMB/m 3, and the transport industry is 440RMB/m 3, (3) excluding the consumer price of the retail sector output, the decreasing in water resources supply tends to improve the consumer price of the sector output, in which water production and supply industry suffered greatly, (4) the decreasing in water resources supply tend to reduce the requirement of labor, among all the sectors, the retail sector reduced with a highest tendency. The system and results of this paper provide a basic analysis platforms and decision-making reference for Tianjin in developing and implementing water policy.

Key words: CGE model, economic analysis, ORANIG, economic policy, Tianjin

Published in: Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (Vol. 10 No. 3, 2012)