GUO Xin-lei, YANG Kai-lin, FU Hui, WANG Tao (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract: Uncertainty of model parameters greatly affects the simulation results, and subsequently affects the management and decision making. Based on the numerical modeling system of water conveyance in ice period for large-scale and long distance water channel, the study focused on parameter-induced uncertainty in modeling ice processes which including ice cover forming and development for the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project. The uncertain parameters in this paper involve initial ice roughness and coefficient of heat exchange between air and ice. The results indicate that the uncertainty of initial ice roughness in the mathematical model mainly affects the water stage and discharge variation along the channel and also the progression model of the leading edge, but has little effect on the length of ice covered reaches and variation of ice related variables. The uncertainty of coefficient of heat exchange between air and ice directly affects the maximum thickness of ice cover and has little effect on the rule of ice cover formation. Thus, the further field observations for this project should be performed to calibrate these uncertain parameters.

Key words: ice processes; mathematical model; parameters uncertainty; ice roughness; coefficient of heat exChange

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 8, 2013