YANG Zhi-yong 1, YUAN Zhe 1, 2, FANG Hong-yang 1, 3, YAN Deng-hua 1 (1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China, 2. College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China, 3. College of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China)

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 1957-2010 at Duolun, Chengde, Qinglong and Leting Meteorological stations in the Luanhe River Basin, the sequences of percentage of precipitation anomalies (Spring/Summer/Autumn) were fitted by GP model. By the L-moment method, the parameters of GP were estimated. Two kinds of Copula functions (Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard) were used to fit the spring-summer and summer-autumn percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences and the probability of multiple events of drought and flood were calculated. The results show that (1) Both the Clayton and Gumbel-Hougaard can better fit the seasonal percentage of precipitation anomalies sequences, (2) The multiple events of drought and flood are most likely to take place in Qinlong and Leting, the frequency of long drought is high during spring and summer, the frequency of alternating occurrences of drought and flood is high during summer and autumn and the summer-autumn multiple events of drought and flood are easily to explored.

Key words: Luanhe River Basin, Copula, Multiply Events of Drought and Flood, Probability

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 5, 2013