WANG Yan-yan 1, HAN Song 1, YU Chao-qing 2, HU Chang-wei 1 (1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 2. Tsinghua University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract: Affected by rapid urbanization and the global warming, the features of flood have been and will be changed significantly in China. Land use risk management is an important measure to restrain the growing flood risk. Taking the Taihu Basin as an example, a flood management benefit assessment model has been established. The future flood risk, the benefit of land use risk management and the integrated flood management measures are evaluated. The results reveal that by 2050 the flood risk in the Taihu Basin will increase by 4~15 times under different climate change and socio-economic scenario. The land use management will decrease the future flood risk by 39%~50%, while the integrated measures may decrease the future flood risk by 70% ~74%. Based on the results, some suggestions are made for adjusting the strategic planning of flood management in the Taihu Basin.

Key words: flood management, risk analysis, land use, benefit assessment

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2013